COVID-19 Third Wave Peak Likely In October: NIDM Report


In a recent report to the Prime Minister’s Office, the National Institute of Disaster Management (NIDM), under the Ministry of Home Affairs, predicted a peak of the third wave of COVID-19 in October 2021.

By Vaishali Pandey/The Newster

The third wave of COVID-19 might reach the country by October, according to an expert committee set up under the supervision of the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA). In its report to the Prime Minister’s Office, the committee, constituted under the banner of the National Institute of Disaster Management (NIDM), called for increased preparedness for children, who may be at higher danger than adults.

NIDM’s Report Quotes The Reuters’ Opinion Survey

The NIDM study cited a Reuters’ opinion survey of 40 experts who predicted that India will be affected by the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic between July 15 and October 13, 2021.

NIDM stated the Delta-Plus variant arose owing to a mutation in the B.1.617.2 (Delta variant) that caused the deadly second wave in India. This novel variation of in the virus is a sub-lineage of the Delta variant that has inherited the ‘K417N’ spike protein mutation that is also found in the Beta variant which was first detected in South Africa.

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NIDM’s report also added, “Though there is not enough evidence as of now to designate the Delta Plus variant as more dangerous than Delta, according to NCDC, as of August 2, 2021, this variant has been detected in 70 cases across 16 states from the 58,240 samples that have been sequenced so far in India.”

Nothing in substance to prove that children are more susceptible to the virus in third wave

Despite having concerns over the severe effects of the third wave of COVID-19 on children, the Indian Academy of Paediatrics found no scientific evidence that the existing and future Delta Plus variants will harm children more than adults, according to the study, which emphasised the effect of the potential third wave of COVID-19 on children.

The Lancet COVID-19 Commission India Task Force also determined, according to the study, that there is no present indication that the predicted third wave will target children particularly.

The report also stated, “A serological survey (March 15-June 10, 2021 from over 45,000 samples across 4 states) by the All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) suggests that the hypothesis of a future wave specifically targeting children (two years and above) is unfounded. The study noted a serological prevalence of 55.7 per cent in ages 2-17 years and 63.5 per cent among adults which clearly determines that there was a statistical difference in prevalence between adults and children.”

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